Application of the Yield Curve Inversion Indicator to Determine the Current Phase of the Stock Market

Purpose: To establish the possibility of using indicator inversion difference in yield curve 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds to determine current phase stock market, predict future direction market movement improve efficiency managerial investment decisions.
 Design/Method/Approach: The following methods were used when writing paper: empirical – carry out experimental checks revealed regularities; graphic - for a visual presentation research results; systematization generalization scientific concepts, developments, proposals; statistical implement quantitative approach studying data. was chosen as base research. carried by processing data on value Standard & Poor's index 500 period from 1989 2022.
 Findings: It has been established that is fairly reliable tool determining approaching recession economy, but at same time it not possible exact recession. shown this expedient use early warning about fall international markets. At time, found every followed preceded an inversion. noted dynamics are signaling significant drop near future.
 Theoretical Implications: Establishing peculiarities conditions modern economy.
 Practical practical application results will allow us more accurately markets receive signals decline markets, which contribute increasing efficiency.
 Originality/Value: This study expands knowledge likely onset economy offers updated model forecasting may be interest specialists who work field investing financial markets.
 Research Limitations/Future Research: presented article create basis conducting similar other indicators order increase accuracy establishing moment or beginning From author's point view, first all, such gold prices, changes Fed's discount rate, Buffett’s should studied. make develop effective mechanism making decisions Paper Type: Empirical
 JEL Classification: E44, F21, G15